It is important to increase employment in general. It is even better to increase good quality jobs. Strategically, it is important to move people from farms to factories to improve overall labour productivity. It is important to improve job opportunities for women, for urbanites and for the educated. The Budget does not contain ideas to do any of this, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The Economic Survey will remain a documentation of the government's resolve to not recognise the severe stress on the labour markets and on the livelihoods of Indian households arising out of the pandemic and the consequent lockdown, observes Mahesh Vyas.
Those who lost jobs in December were women, graduates, post graduates, salaried employees, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The count of the unemployed mounted to 38.7 million in December 2020 compared to 27.4 million in November, registering a massive increase of 11.3 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
The cut in wages by companies whose operations were not shut by the lockdown was more likely opportunistic than out of business compulsions to survive the lockdown. If this is true, then it is worth wondering what kind of opportunism was this? Was it to make a quick buck or was it to use a crisis to engineer a structural change that was necessary, asks Mahesh Vyas.
'By November 2020, men recovered most of their lost jobs, but women were less fortunate: 49 per cent of the job losses by November were of women.' 'The recovery has benefited all, but it benefited women less than it did men,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
The recovery seen in the increased economic activity till September or October is running out of steam. Labour statistics indicate a substantial slowing down of the economy in November, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The lockdown has taught companies a lesson or two on running business with fewer human resources. These lessons are unlikely to be forgotten, observes Mahesh Vyas.
These companies provide better quality jobs and so it is particularly reassuring to see these jobs grow faster than the overall growth of jobs in India, says Mahesh Vyas.
The addition of a million jobs as promised by Tejashwi Yadav would make a big impact. But the electorate needs to raise its expectations, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Keeping the employment rate from slipping is challenging. To merely keep the employment rate unchanged, the economy has to generate additional jobs. It needs to run to stay where it is, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Nothing in India's recent history suggests that India can provide 8-9 million jobs a year, let alone generate 50 million jobs in any reasonable time, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
The biggest loss of jobs among salaried employees was of 'white-collar professional employees and other employees'. Among these are engineers including software engineers, physicians, teachers, accountants, analysts and so on, who are professionally qualified and are employed in some private or government organisation All the gains made in their employment over the past four years were washed away during the lockdown, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
There were 86 million salaried jobs in India during 2019-2020. In August 2020, their count was down to 65 million. The deficit of 21 million jobs is the biggest among all types of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
'The 20 to 24 age group accounted for 35% of job losses till July.' 'The 25 to 29 age bracket account for 46% of all job losses,' reveals Mahesh Vyas.
'Loss of these urban salaried jobs is, therefore, likely to have a particularly debilitating impact on the economy, besides causing immediate hardship to middle-class households,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
While salaried jobs are not lost easily, once lost they are also far more difficult to retrieve. Therefore, their ballooning numbers are a source of worry, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The recovery momentum could be petering out well before the recovery is complete, notes Mahesh Vyas.
While the lockdown hit employment in all age groups, it hit the employment of youngsters who are less than 29 years of age much more. The lockdown also hit women more than it has affected men, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
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